Insider Monkey
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- Edward Lampert Increases Position in Sears Holdings
- Bandera Partners’ Stake in Ambassadors Group Surges to 18%
- Silver Point Buys Standard Register Shares for an Employee
- Glenn Krevlin’s Glenhill Adds to Stake in Lionbridge
- 1 Under-The-Radar Activist Campaign to Keep An Eye On
- Mohnish Pabrai Buys More Horsehead Stock at $12/Share
- Winslow Capital Management Unloads Entire FMC Technologies Stake
- Is The Media Jealous of Dan Loeb?
- How Hedge Fund Manager Michael Messner Plays the Mid-Caps
- Why You Should Know Who Bruce Silver Is
- Joseph Edelman and Perceptive Advisors Buy 360,700 Shares of AcelRx Pharmaceuticals
- Hedge Fund News: Warren Buffett, Steven Cohen, Carl Icahn’s Halloween Move
- Tom Sandell Raises Position in London-listed FirstGroup to 3%
- Weiss Asset Management Slices Exposure in LSE-listed China Growth Opportunities
- Hong-Kong-based Oasis Management Discloses 5% of Hawaiian Holdings
- Cannell Capital, Clinton Group Form New Activist Group at ValueVision Media
- New Revenue Streams for Old Media: Are Publishing Stocks Here to Stay?
- Earnings Analysis for Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company: In Maintenance Mode?
- This REIT’s Due For A Double-Digit Pop By Thanksgiving
- Google’s Chart Predicts a Breakout That Could Lead to Fast Profits
Edward Lampert Increases Position in Sears Holdings Posted: 04 Nov 2013 02:14 PM PST Edward S. Lampert, the manager of ESL Investments and the chairman of Sears Holdings Corp (NASDAQ:SHLD), increased his position in the company by 7,198 shares, a form 4 filed with the SEC has revealed. The shares have been granted to Mr. Lampert under the terms of Sears’ 2006 Stock Plan. Following the increase, Mr. Lampert owns a total amount of 25.1 million shares. Disclosure: none | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Bandera Partners’ Stake in Ambassadors Group Surges to 18% Posted: 04 Nov 2013 01:46 PM PST Greg Bylinsky and Jeff Gramm‘s hedge fund, Bandera Partners, boosted its position in Ambassadors Group Inc (NASDAQ:EPAX) to 3.1 million shares, a newly amended filing with the SEC revealed. The stake has been upgraded from some 2.8 million shares reported in its latest 13F. The new position represents 18% of Ambassadors’ common stock. Disclosure: none Recommended Reading: Silver Point Buys Standard Register Shares for an Employee | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Silver Point Buys Standard Register Shares for an Employee Posted: 04 Nov 2013 01:40 PM PST After reiterating its position in Standard Register Co (NYSE:SR), Edward A. Mule‘s Silver Point Capital disclosed buying an additional amount of 5,355 shares of the company. The shares have been purchased for $8.50 apiece as a grant to Anthony DiNello, an employee of Silver Point, who serves as a director at Standard Register. Aside from the aforementioned recently purchased shares, Silver Point holds around 2.2 million shares of Standard Register. Disclosure: none Recommended Reading: Glenn Krevlin's Glenhill Adds to Stake in Lionbridge | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Glenn Krevlin’s Glenhill Adds to Stake in Lionbridge Posted: 04 Nov 2013 01:16 PM PST Glenn J. Krevlin‘s fund Glenhill Advisors raised its position in Lionbridge Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:LIOX) to a total of some 8.8 million shares, according to a new filing with the SEC. The fund purchased 53,300 shares in three transactions at an average price of around $4.37 apiece. Disclosure: none Recommended Reading: 1 Under-The-Radar Activist Campaign to Keep An Eye On Mohnish Pabrai Buys More Horsehead Stock at $12/Share Winslow Capital Management Unloads Entire FMC Technologies Stake | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 Under-The-Radar Activist Campaign to Keep An Eye On Posted: 04 Nov 2013 01:09 PM PST Activist investors like Dan Loeb and Carl Icahn get most of the attention in the financial blogosphere, but there are plenty of lesser-known guys you should know about too. Jeff Smith's Starboard Value is one such hedge fund, and it has recently made a move in a small-cap environmental services company. At Insider Monkey, we've discovered that hedge fund sentiment has several market-beating qualities, so let's take a look at what Smith and Starboard are up to. According to a newly amended 13D filing with the SEC, Starboard Value now owns 9.7% of Calgon Carbon Corporation (NYSE:CCC), good for about 5.2 million shares worth a little over $100 million. The activist has been invested in the company since November 2012, and he's joined by the likes of David Shaw, Joel Greenblatt and Israel Englander, among others. The primary reason behind Starboard Value's new filing was to disclose a letter dated November 4th, sent to Calgon CEO Randall Dearth. The full letter can be seen here, and there are a few particular points we should mention. Smith and Starboard's activist campaign is calling for: (1) a "large" stock buyback, (2) the conversion of its U.S. activated carbon assets into an MLP, and (3) more cost reductions. Now, it's worth mentioning that since the beginning of the year, Calgon's margins have shown marked improvement on the back of "reductions in operating expenses," as the letter points out, and shares of the company are up 42% year-to-date. More specifically, EBITDA margins are up to nearly 20% from 13.6% last year, and Starboard thinks this figure can pass 23% if its three aforementioned ideas are carried out. Stock buyback With regard to a stock buyback, Calgon already implemented a $50 million accelerated share repurchase plan at the end of last year, but Starboard believes this outlay should be increased to as much as $200 million. The hedge fund also suggests that the company should complete the buyback through a Dutch tender offer and subsequent open market purchases, rather than a continuation of the ASR, which it thinks is too restrictive. MLP conversion The bigger potential move is the MLP changeover. Starboard believes that Calgon would be better off converting its domestic carbon assets into a master limited partnership, which would save the company in taxes while giving it the ability to stabilize margins. The hedge fund estimates that an 80% ownership of the so-called Activated Carbon MLP would create between $215 million and $397 million in shareholder value for Calgon Carbon investors. At a market capitalization of about $1.1 billion, this represents significant upside to current share prices. More cost reductions As mentioned above, Calgon Carbon's cost reduction initiatives are moving in the right direction. EBITDA margins have improved by over six percentage points in less than a year, and they've outpaced five-year highs near 18%. Jeff Smith and Starboard Value think that more improvements can be made, particularly in comparison to companies like AMCOL International Corporation (NYSE:ACO), Polypore International, Inc. (NYSE:PPO) and Matthews International Corp (NASDAQ:MATW), and 17 other peers listed in the letter. Starboard also points to the privately held Norit N.V. as an ideal foil to Calgon Carbon, and mentions that despite "substantially" lower revenues and fixed-cost leverage, Norit is able to generate peak EBITDA margins of 23%. Due to Calgon's larger size, the hedge fund believes it can improve this figure to between 23% and 25%, which implies that an EBITDA multiple of 8x currently rests on its shares. Citing a peer average of 11x from companies like Amcol, Polypore and Matthews, Starboard reveals that Calgon appears to be trading at a discount of a little over 25%. Final thoughts As we've said many times before, most activist investors suggest multiple value creation strategies to the companies they're invested in, and the best situations occur when there's more than one way to win, so to speak. In the case of Jeff Smith, Starboard Value and Calgon Carbon, an expanded buyback, MLP conversion and additional cost reductions are three ways to boost shares of the stock even higher than they've flown thus far in 2013. We'll keep a close eye on all three scenarios, and you should too. Recommended Reading: Mohnish Pabrai Buys More Horsehead Stock at $12/Share Winslow Capital Management Unloads Entire FMC Technologies Stake | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Mohnish Pabrai Buys More Horsehead Stock at $12/Share Posted: 04 Nov 2013 12:34 PM PST Mohnish Pabrai‘s Dalal Street continues to be bullish on HORSEHEAD HOLDING CORP. (NASDAQ:ZINC), according to a new form 4. At the end of last week, Dalal Street purchased 325,000 shares after reporting buying 2,300 on Wednesday. The shares have been acquired in one transaction, the price amounting to $12.00 apiece. Following the acquisition of additional shares, Dalal owns an aggregate amount of around 5.5 million shares. Disclosure: none Recommended Reading: Winslow Capital Management Unloads Entire FMC Technologies Stake | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Winslow Capital Management Unloads Entire FMC Technologies Stake Posted: 04 Nov 2013 11:19 AM PST Winslow Capital Management, in a newly amended filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, reported closing off its entire position in FMC Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:FTI). In its latest 13F, Winslow disclosed holding an aggregate amount of some 5.6 million shares of the company. Disclosure: none Recommended Reading: Is The Media Jealous of Dan Loeb? Why You Should Know Who Bruce Silver Is Joseph Edelman and Perceptive Advisors Buy 360,700 Shares of AcelRx Pharmaceuticals | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Is The Media Jealous of Dan Loeb? Posted: 04 Nov 2013 10:52 AM PST There is a lot of undue criticism of Dan Loeb these days. The billionaire who oversees Third Point is one of the market's most lively activists, known for his value stimulation campaigns at companies like Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO), Sothebys (NYSE:BID) and Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE:SNE). While it's tempting to envision investors like Loeb as voracious pests, the media pundits that paint this picture don't really understand the hedge fund industry at all. For starters, it's important to realize that many activists are skilled investors at heart. At Insider Monkey, we track Loeb, Carl Icahn, Bill Ackman, Barry Rosenstein's Jana Partners and many other hedge fund managers who have filed a 13D in their careers, and on the whole, their best stock picks have historically outperformed the S&P 500 (see how we returned 47.6% in our first year). Aside from being able to find good equity investments for their clients, the activist crew is, collectively, an essential entity in the financial markets. Vanity Fair, who published a piece on Dan Loeb last week, sensationally critiqued the hedge fund manager for his strategies used to unlock shareholder value, particularly for his letters sent to CEOs and board members he has gone activist on, as we like to say. Now, let's get something straight. The phrase "to unlock shareholder value" is not a meaningless bit of business lingo designed to confuse the everyday reader, nor does it imply that Loeb, Icahn, Ackman et al. are conniving curmudgeons looking to uproot an entire company. Rather, these words simply seek to explain the final goal of any activist investor: to increase the value of the stock they are invested in, for the good of every shareholder. Anyone who followed Loeb into Yahoo's stock in the fall of 2011 has been treated to a 158% gain in a little over two years. Auctioneer Sotheby's, who Loeb and Third Point sent a letter to last month asking for the CEO's resignation, has seen its stock rise by 14% since the activist stake was revealed nine weeks ago. Loeb's résumé, and the résumés of many of his peers, are filled with similar successes. While Vanity Fair and similarly impulsive media outlets are correct to point out that activist investments sometimes fail to achieve everything they set out to do, they misunderstand the aim of such campaigns: to stimulate shareholder value. As with anything in life, activists are sometimes overly aggressive when they initially push for change at a target company; Loeb, specifically, will often throw many different ideas on the wall until one sticks. While some strategies are ultimately rejected and provide plenty of good fodder for the financial tabloids, the end result is that regular investors who piggyback these moves often benefit. It's too early to tell what will become of Dan Loeb's quest for change at Sotheby's, but despite the fact that his vernacular may have offended a few inept columnists, the average investor should be cheering for him to succeed. The company's unofficial rap sheet is long, but the biggest offenses to shareholder value include: (1) an inability to capitalize on growth opportunities in contemporary and modern art, (2) anemic operating margins, (3) a lack of insider stock holdings among top executives, (4) an unfamiliarity with lower value customers, (5) a few, very public, examples of uneconomical spending, and (6) a recent history of quarterly earnings miscues. The proof is in the pudding, though, and as long as Loeb's campaign continues at Sotheby's, we expect it to continue to reward anyone who is along for the ride. As for the comparisons that have been made between the activist and Kanye West, a 21-time Grammy winner who is arguably the best rapper alive, Dan Loeb should take that as a compliment. Disclosure: none | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
How Hedge Fund Manager Michael Messner Plays the Mid-Caps Posted: 04 Nov 2013 10:43 AM PST The New York-based Seminole Capital Management, led by Michael Messner, is a hedge fund with an equity portfolio worth almost $1.6 billion, according to its latest 13F filing. Due to the fact that hedge fund sentiment has proven to be a market-beating strategy if you know where to look (see how we returned 47.6% in our first year), we'll run through Seminole's five largest mid-cap stock picks at the end of the third quarter. Unum Group Seminole reported a $41.7 million position in Unum Group (NYSE:UNM), a company with an $8.3 billion market cap. Overall, the fund holds some 1.4 million shares of the company, up by 73,000 shares over the quarter. At the beginning of October, Unum declared a dividend worth $0.145 per common share. In the second quarter of the year, the company posted a slight increase in its net income per share, which totaled $0.82. The stock of Unum has increased by 53% since the beginning of the year. Axis Capital The next on the list comes Axis Capital Holdings Limited (NYSE:AXS), in which Seminole holds some 909,100 shares, worth $39.4 million. In the second quarter, Axis Capital posted a surge in its earnings to $375 million, or $3.19 per diluted common share, from $290 million ($2.31 per share) in the same period of 2012. The company bought back $5.1 million of its common shares, for an aggregate value of $228 million, and it has $409 million of authorization for the repurchase until December 31, 2014. US Airways Seminole also holds a $33.6 million stake in US Airways Group Inc (NYSE:LCC), the position amassing almost 1.8 million shares. The fund started its exposure in the $3.8 billion US Airways during the third quarter, joining longer term investors like David Tepper and Donald Chiboucis. US Airways is currently in the process of merging with American Airlines, which may be blocked by the U.S. Department of Justice. For the third quarter of the year, US Airways revealed a significant boost in its pretax profit, which surged by 90% on the year, to $367 million. “These outstanding results are occurring as our teams continue intensive integration planning work in preparation for our merger with American Airlines. Our hard working team members, along with their colleagues at the American, remain committed to building a combined airline that can compete in the global marketplace. We are eager to present our case and are grateful for the enthusiasm and support our merger continues to receive,” US Airways quoted Chairman and CEO Doug Parker in a press release. PartnerRe In Partnerre Ltd (NYSE:PRE), Seminole reported owning approximately 286,600 shares, with an aggregate value worth around $26.2 million. In the first nine months of this year, PartnerRe posted a net income of $392.2 million, equivalent to $5.93 per share, down from $1.02 billion, or $15.19 per share disclosed for the same period of last year. The decline in profit was on the back of net after-tax realized and unrealized losses on investments worth $219 million. During the third quarter, PartnerRe bought back around 1.2 million common shares for $103 million. The company still has 5.9 million shares in terms of its current repurchase authorization, and has seen a few big-time hedge funds buy in this year (see who else is bullish on PartnerRe). Embraer With a market cap of $5.7 billion, Embraer SA (ADR) (NYSE:ERJ) is the fifth-largest mid-cap pick in the equity portfolio of Seminole. The fund disclosed a 15.9 million position, which contains around 490,200 shares. The aircraft manufacturer recently introduced its Lineage 1000E, an ultra-large executive jet for up to 19 passengers with various features that enhance comfort and flight quality. The company delivered a total of 44 jets during the third quarter, out of which 19 represented commercial aircrafts, and 25 executive jets. The order backlog of the company amounted to $17.8 billion at the end of the third quarter. Disclosure: I am long LCC Recommended Reading: This Under-The-Radar Stock Could Save A Buffett Favorite Millions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Why You Should Know Who Bruce Silver Is Posted: 04 Nov 2013 10:43 AM PST Bruce Silver's Silver Capital Management has revealed its latest stock picks in its third quarter 13F with the SEC. Silver's firm is one of the 600 or so hedge funds we track at Insider Monkey, and if you know where to look, the best consensus stock picks of this group can beat the market (see how we returned 47.6% in our first year). It's also important to look at individual favorites, and with that in mind, let's run through Bruce Silver's largest holdings at the end of Q3. Blucora The fund holds its largest position in Blucora Inc (NASDAQ:BCOR), with the stake amounting to almost $2.5 million. Silver Capital reported owning 107,300 shares of the Internet services company. Steven Cohen and Jim Simons also disclosed positions here in their last 13F filings. In the third quarter, Blucora completed its purchase of Monoprice, which it announced earlier this year. The value of the transaction for the online distributor of consumer electronics and accessories amounted to $180 million in cash. In the second quarter of 2013, Blucora posted a 16% increase in revenues on the year, which amounted to $117.2 million. Forestar Silver Capital also reported a $2.3 million position in Forestar Group Inc. (NYSE:FOR), which contains 107,899 shares. This is a new position in the fund’s equity portfolio. The net income of Forestar declined to $0.5 million in the second quarter, from $0.8 million compared with the same period of last year. The decline in profit was mainly caused by a $1.6 million expense from the purchase of Credo Petroleum Corporation. Specialized in real estate and natural resources, Forestar Group posted a 170% surge in oil and gas production, on the back of the acquisition of Credo. XO Group The next on the list is XO Group Inc (NYSE:XOXO), in which the fund owns 168,206 shares, with an aggregate value of some $2.2 million. Total revenue of XO Group went up by 4.4% on the year to $37 million, while net income increased to $4.1 million, from $3.1 million. XO Group is engaged in media and technology for weddings, pregnancy, and other things related to them. The stock of the company has advanced by around 50% since the beginning of the year, rewarding investors like Silver, David Shaw and Ken Griffin. NutriSystem The fund also disclosed a $2.3 million stake in NutriSystem Inc. (NASDAQ:NTRI). Silver Capital owns 157,002 shares of the company engaged in weight management systems. For the third quarter of 2013, NutriSystem showed an annual 5% increase in revenues to $85.4 million. NutriSystem’s main products are various packages for weight loss. Earlier this year, the company announced the expansion of its production, on the back of increase in demand. NutriSystem also expanded its retail network to 3,700 Wal-Mart [s:WMT] stores, which is expected to help sales growth in the future. KKR Financial The fifth largest pick from Silver Capital’s latest 13F is a $2.1 million position held in KKR Financial Holdings LLC (NYSE:KFN). The fund holds an aggregate amount of 202,404 shares of the company. During October, KKR announced several acquisitions, one of which is Avoca Capital, a Europe-based credit investment management firm with AUM worth around $8 billion. The company also entered into a definitive agreement under the terms of which, KKR’s funds will purchase SBB/Telemach Group, a Pay-TV and broadband operator. Under the terms of another agreement, KKR acquired Melrose Industries PLC for $1 billion. The investment firm had a net income of $204.7 million in the third quarter of 2013, an increase in comparison with $127.4 million in the same period of last year. Recommended Reading: Activist Jeff Smith Sends Letter to Calgon Carbon, Calls For Buyback & MLP Conversion Fairfax Still Silent About BlackBerry With Deadline Approaching | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Joseph Edelman and Perceptive Advisors Buy 360,700 Shares of AcelRx Pharmaceuticals Posted: 04 Nov 2013 10:34 AM PST Hedge fund Perceptive Advisors, founded and managed by Joseph Edelman, increased its position in AcelRx Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:ACRX) by some 360,700 shares, to a total of around 6.22 million. The shares have been acquired in 4 transactions, with the average price amounting to $6.9 apiece. Disclosure: none | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Hedge Fund News: Warren Buffett, Steven Cohen, Carl Icahn’s Halloween Move Posted: 04 Nov 2013 10:31 AM PST SAC Capital Advisors hedge fund reaches $1.8 billion deal with feds over insider trading charges (New York Daily News) 4 Halloween hedge fund moves worth watching (MarketWatch) A Buffett-worthy Brand to Buy (Insider Monkey) Hedge Funds Plan Proxy Battle for ValueVision Media (New York Times) Hedge Fund Entry Level Salaries Hit $335,000 (IBTimes.co.uk) How to invest without speculation (CNBC.com) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tom Sandell Raises Position in London-listed FirstGroup to 3% Posted: 04 Nov 2013 08:48 AM PST Tom Sandell‘s Sandell Asset Management now holds an aggregate amount of over 37.3 million shares of London-listed FirstGroup plc (LON:FGP), a filing revealed. Sandell’s holding has been increased to a total of 3% of FirstGroup’s voting rights. Disclosure: none Recommended Reading: Weiss Asset Management Slices Exposure in LSE-listed China Growth Opportunities Hong-Kong-based Oasis Management Discloses 5% of Hawaiian Holdings Cannell Capital, Clinton Group Form New Activist Group at ValueVision Media | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Weiss Asset Management Slices Exposure in LSE-listed China Growth Opportunities Posted: 04 Nov 2013 07:47 AM PST Andrew Weiss‘s hedge fund, Weiss Asset Management, reduced its position in China Growth Opportunities Limited (LON:CGOP) to some 8.9 million shares versus the previously owned 11.9 million. Following the decrease, Weiss now holds 12.76% of the company’s voting rights. Disclosure: none Recommended Reading: Hong-Kong-based Oasis Management Discloses 5% of Hawaiian Holdings Cannell Capital, Clinton Group Form New Activist Group at ValueVision Media | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Hong-Kong-based Oasis Management Discloses 5% of Hawaiian Holdings Posted: 04 Nov 2013 07:30 AM PST The Hong-Kong-based hedge fund, Oasis Management, has reported a passive stake in Hawaiian Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:HA) that amasses over 2.6 million shares. The new position represents 5% of Hawaiian’s common stock. Disclosure: none Recommended Reading: Cannell Capital, Clinton Group Form New Activist Group at ValueVision Media | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Cannell Capital, Clinton Group Form New Activist Group at ValueVision Media Posted: 04 Nov 2013 07:17 AM PST Carlo Cannell and his hedge fund Cannell Capital has entered into an agreement with activist firm Clinton Group and several other parties, under the terms of which, they have agreed to consult with each other regarding the buying and selling of ValueVision Media Inc (NASDAQ:VVTV) stock. The group, which holds over 10% of ValueVision’s outstanding shares, is also looking to hold a special shareholder’s meeting “to elect new directors who will install a senior management team that will harness the power of ValueVision’s tremendous assets.” Disclosure: none Recommended Reading: Canada's Clarke Slices Exposure in Vitran to 2.55% Engaged Capital Reveals It Owns 5.1% of Volcano Corporation Shah Capital Decreases Position in UTStarcom Holdings, Withdraws Acquisition Proposal | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
New Revenue Streams for Old Media: Are Publishing Stocks Here to Stay? Posted: 04 Nov 2013 07:11 AM PST New approaches are providing revenue for old media. Will the trend save some of our most storied brands? There is no dearth of information on how the internet has disrupted the so-called Fourth Estate: the once mighty network of powerful reporters, editors, and newspaper publishers has seen their relevance decline in era of bloggers and real-time tweets. Not to mention their profit margins. That is, with some notable exceptions. A few traditional media outlets have managed to make a turnaround – and a new report from The New York Times suggests that larger companies considered ‘old media’ are beginning to follow suit. For instance, there are the well known success stories of The Huffington Post and Politico, both of which have grown consistently in popularity, size, and prestige since their conception. The former was sold to AOL, Inc. (NYSE:AOL) in 2011 for about the same amount that Jeff Bezos paid for The Washington Post over the summer – though the latter has been around for over 130 years. And Politico, once a modest blog dedicated to covering news and gossip on Capitol Hill, has since grown into an important media company. Profits have grown every year since President Obama’s inauguration in 2009, proving its revenues don’t rely on the election cycle as much as some previously thought. Politico recently purchased a smaller blog, is setting up offices in New York City, and has made several high-profile hires. This is just one example of media companies turning a profit by focusing on alternative, typically online, platforms. The Atlantic, which had been in the red for decades, expects to bring in $1.8 million this year thanks in part to its many, varied content sites. Investing ideas It may have taken a couple of years, but other old media companies are starting to follow suit. The Washington Post is now under the stewardship of one of the internet’s boldest entrepreneurs. The New York Times has rebranded its international wing, and is taking advantage of the lucrative expositions and conferences that newspapers and magazines are using to fatten their bottom lines. There is an age-old notion that the public will never lose its appetite for content. But an increasingly connected world, with greater access to celebrity writers through blogs and Twitter, means these media companies have to work harder to justify charging a premium for access to their content. From an investor’s perspective, part of the market’s skepticism for older news platforms means that some of these companies might be undervalued. The New York Times Company (NYSE:NYT) fits that profile. Its levered free cash flow is $237.19 million vs. an enterprise value of $1.82 billion. That gives its stock a potential upside of 13.03% when the company’s revenues are weighted against its size, debt, and stock price. To see if we could find any other media companies capitalizing on the trend, we screened a universe of media companies for stocks with projected 5 year earnings per share (EPS) growth of at least 15%. For an industry in flux, that’s a good indication of future growth. So are these publishing stocks worth a closer read? Click on the interactive chart to view yearly and monthly returns over time. Do you think these media companies are doing enough to merit future growth? Use the list below as a starting point for your own analysis.1. The Dolan Company (NYSE:DM) (DM, Earnings, Analysts, Financials): Provides business information and professional services to legal, financial, and real estate sectors in the United States. Market cap at $82.87M, most recent closing price at $2.72. EPS Next 5 Years: 17% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Earnings Analysis for Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company: In Maintenance Mode? Posted: 04 Nov 2013 07:11 AM PST Earnings Analysis The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (NASDAQ:GT)The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (NASDAQ:GT) reported its Q3 2013 results yesterday. The company is engaged in developing, manufacturing, distributing and selling tires and related products and services worldwide. Goodyear shares had gained .7% by market close today. Our earnings analysis for Goodyear suggests that the market expects faster growth from it than from most of its peers (see the end of this post for the peer list used for the analysis). Get a Free Fundamental Analysis for Goodyear TireOur earnings analysis for Goodyear is based on the company’s performance over the last twelve months (unless stated otherwise). The table below shows the preliminary results along with the recent trend for revenues, net income and returns.
Faster Growth?The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company’s current Price/Book of 11.3 is about average in its peer group. Goodyear achieved a better operating performance than the average of its chosen peers (ROE of 67.9% compared to the peer average ROE of 17.8%) and the market still expects faster growth from it than from those peers (PE of 16.0 compared to peer average of 11.8). The company’s profit margins are below peer average (currently 2.0% vs. peer average of 6.1%) while its asset efficiency is about average (asset turns of 1.1x compared to peer average of 1.0x). Goodyear’s net margin is its highest relative to the last five years and compares to a low of -2.3% in 2009. Strategic PlayWhile Goodyear’s revenues have increased more slowly than the peer average (8.8% vs. 12.1% respectively for the past three years), the market currently gives the company a higher than peer average PE ratio of 16.0. The stock price may be factoring in some sort of a strategic play. Maintenance ModeGoodyear’s annualized rate of change in capital of 1.3% over the past three years is less than its peer average of 4.6%. This below average investment level has also generated a less than peer average return on capital of 1.9% averaged over the same three years. This outcome suggests that the company has invested capital relatively poorly and now may be in maintenance mode. Earnings QualityGoodyear reported relatively weak net income margins for the last twelve months (2.0% vs. peer average of 6.1%). However, the company booked a level of accruals that is around peer average (3.4% vs. peer average of 3.7%) for the same period, suggesting that its reported net income is supported by a reasonable level of accruals. Goodyear’s accruals over the last twelve months are positive suggesting a buildup of reserves. However, this level of accruals is also around the peer average and suggests the company is recording a proper level of reserves compared to its peers. Trend Charts for Goodyear Tire & Rubber CompanyPeers for Goodyear Tire & Rubber CompanyWe used the following peer-set for our analysis: Continental AG (ADR) (OTCMKTS:CTTAY), Bridgestone Corp (ADR) (OTCMKTS:BRDCY), Compagnie Gnrl des Etblsmnts Mchln SCA (EPA:ML), Nokian Renkaat Oyj Unsponsored ADR (OMX NORDIC HELSINKI:NRE1V), Hankook Tire Co Ltd (KRX:161390), Cooper Tire & Rubber Company (NYSE:CTB) and Toyo Tire & Rubber Co., Ltd. (TYO:5105). Get a Free Fundamental Analysis for Goodyear Tire | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
This REIT’s Due For A Double-Digit Pop By Thanksgiving Posted: 04 Nov 2013 07:10 AM PST With the recent decline in interest rates thanks to a strong bond market, dividend stocks are back in favor. Sectors that do well when bonds rally are setting up for a nice move higher. HCP, Inc. (NYSE:HCP) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and manages health care properties. I am not big on trying to figure out what stocks will do well under the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) — I’d rather look for stocks with charts that signal they are ready to go higher. With a generous 4.9% dividend yield and improving technical indicators, HCP is indeed set up for price gains. As a group, stocks offering big dividends peaked in May when the bond market began to fall. At the time, the Fed first hinted that it was considering the tapering of its bond buying program. Utilities, REITs, housing and many consumer staples stocks headed lower as traders thought interest rates would rise. Now that tapering seems to be off the table for a few months, dividend-paying stocks have regained favor. HCP in particular bottomed in early October and has been moving higher ever since. On Oct. 3, there was a management shake-up, and the stock plunged 4.7% on exceptionally heavy volume. It continued lower the next day on an analyst downgrade, but the two-day event was an emotional event called a “selling climax.” Bullish investors basically threw in the towel and sold. Sentiment was excessively bearish and, theoretically, everyone who was going to sell did so. Bearishness was washed out, and in the absence of selling pressure, it didn’t take much demand to get prices shooting higher from there. It was contrarianism at its finest. There are a few other technicals I like here. The first is a bullish divergence between price action and momentum indicators. The relative strength index (RSI) set a higher low in October than it did in August, while price made a lower low. This suggests waning downside momentum, and most of the time, price corrects to follow RSI. So far, so good. The stock is also back above its 50-day moving average. It’s true that it did the same in September, but then fell back rather quickly. This month, however, it already has 10 closes above that average under its belt, suggesting that this time the upside breakout will hold. If HCP can break out from this weeklong pause, then it would have little in its way until reaching resistance from its July high at $47.45. This is also close to where its 200-day average is now and a 50% retracement of the May-October decline. Action to Take –> This article was originally published on ProfitableTrading.com P.S. HCP is an attractive stock, but there’s an even better way to invest in the housing market. The nation’s largest investors are moving to profit from the next housing boom, but we’ve found a backdoor way for regular investors to get in on the action. If you’d like to start collecting “rents” as high as 8.6% without owning a square foot of property, click here now. - Michael Kahn Warren Buffett’s Top 5 Stocks Buffett’s firm, Berkshire Hathaway, holds dozens of stocks. But these five make up 75% of its portfolio… worth $65 billion. Click here to get Buffett’s top 5 stocks plus his 16 latest buys, FREE. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Google’s Chart Predicts a Breakout That Could Lead to Fast Profits Posted: 04 Nov 2013 07:10 AM PST Momentum remains on the side of technology giant Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) despite the large gains already made in 2013. Following a big post-earnings rally in mid-October, the stock consolidated and is forming a tight bullish wedge pattern. This offers traders another juicy long-side breakout trade. Tight patterns often lead to quick moves. A break to new highs would keep the momentum on the side of the bulls, while any break below the consolidation pattern would be equally bearish and serve as an automatic stop-out area. The company reported third-quarter results after the close on Oct. 17, beating analysts’ estimates on all fronts. Earnings per share (EPS) were up 19% to $10.74 from the same quarter a year ago, beating estimates of $10.34 by a good margin. Revenue was up 12% to $14.9 billion, slightly better than the consensus estimate. As a result, the stock exploded higher on massive volume on Oct. 18, and it has not looked back since. GOOG shareholders are no strangers to good-sized post-earnings moves, but the 13.8% rally was larger than usual, and it took the stock above $1,000 for the first time, setting a new all-time high. GOOG is up 43% year to date, and while displaying a steep slope and medium-term overbought levels, stocks in this type of pattern can continue higher for longer than many can stay short. Because we always need to consider both sides of the coin, however, I would be remiss not to mention that if a bearish reversal were to occur, it should be respected. From more of a structural point of view, the broader U.S. stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, is higher by about 24% this year. Many institutional investors remain under-invested and most likely are underperforming the market. Despite the fact that some mutual funds are closing the books for their year on Oct. 31, most funds are open for business until the end of the calendar year and are looking to buy dips or chase breakouts. Keeping this in mind, and also noting that GOOG offers good trading volume, plenty of institutional research coverage and is playing in an industry with lots of growth potential, we have a stock that has a natural bid at least in the medium term. In terms of momentum, Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) and stochastic oscillators on the weekly chart above are pointing in the right direction (up) and have room to the upside. Also, in a trend-following situation as is currently the case for many institutional and individual investors in GOOG, momentum oscillators can remain “overbought” for a long time, making them fairly irrelevant. What would be noteworthy and make me more cautious is negative divergence between the stock’s price and momentum oscillators, which is not yet the case. Moving on to the daily chart, GOOG held its 200-day moving average in early October, and with the post-earnings rally, broke out of a multi-month consolidation phase. The fact that this rally came out of a solid base rather than a steep slope further supports the bullish case. In the past two weeks since the earnings announcement, the stock has formed a tight consolidation pattern, a break above which could easily push it 5% higher in the short term. Recommended Trade Setup: – Buy GOOG on a break above $1,035 $1,000 Per Month Trading System You could collect $1,000 or more per month without buying a single stock. Click here to learn how… |
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